MYB NewsThe nor'easter's flooding starts Wednesday, not Friday
A coastal flood warning is in force now and expires before Erev Sukkos; the month's highest astronomical tides come after Yom Tov.
A non-tropical low is forecast to form off the East Coast on Friday 25 September and stall or move slowly near the coastline into the weekend. It will not get a name: the Boston Globe reports sea surface temperatures below the roughly 80 degrees tropical systems need.
The flooding does not wait for Friday. A coastal flood warning is in force now for Ocean, Atlantic, Cape May and southeastern Burlington counties, from 4 pm Wednesday to 1 am Friday 25 September, with advisories for eastern Monmouth, Middlesex and western Monmouth into early Friday. Its text puts one to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas, with many roads impassable. CNN reports some gauges could reach major flood stage by Thursday morning.
It expires before Friday evening's high tide; nothing now covers Friday night or Shabbos. Warnings are written to the tide cycle, not to anyone's calendar. After that the sources split: Friday into Monday (the Globe), Saturday through Tuesday (ABC News), a peak Saturday and Sunday (Fox 5 New York).
What the tide forecast lands on
NOAA's predicted high tide at The Battery on Friday evening is 5.36 feet at 8:03 pm, measured from mean lower low water, the low-tide benchmark. Flood thresholds there are 7.0 feet for minor, 8.3 moderate, 9.4 major, so Friday evening needs 1.64 feet of anomaly for minor, 2.94 moderate, 4.04 major.
The published anomalies are not one number: CNN and News 12 New Jersey put tides 2 to 3 feet above normal; weather.com puts inundation at 1 to 3 feet. The high range lands Friday evening near 7.4 to 8.4 feet, minor flooding brushing moderate at the top. The low end lands near 6.4 feet, under the minor threshold, which is no flooding at all.
Held water, not a single surge
The circulation drives wind onshore from the northeast for several consecutive tide cycles, and each high tide starts from a higher base because the previous tide has not drained out of the back bays and creeks. Dave Curren at News 12 New Jersey said "a persistent, gusty wind from the same direction for days creates coastal flooding issues that could be more than inconvenient."
A full moon falls on 26 September, which ABC News and the Globe cite. At The Battery and Sandy Hook the month's highest astronomical tides come at the end of the month, three to four days behind the full moon. The storm runs ahead of the spring tides, so the water keeps building after Yom Tov.
Who it hits here
Friday 25 September is 14 Tishrei, Erev Sukkos, and the first day is Shabbos, 26 September. From Friday afternoon through Sunday night offices are shut, suppliers do not pick up and claims lines take a voicemail. The window for walking a property and moving stock off a ground floor is Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, the round already under warning.
The 30-day clock is a program rule
A new National Flood Insurance Program policy takes effect 30 days after the premium is received, so a policy bought this week is not in force for this storm. FEMA's published text, retrieved 23 September, has four exceptions: a policy bought in connection with making, increasing, extending or renewing a mortgage loan, no wait; an added amount required by a loan transaction or a map revision, no wait, which is narrower than any increase at renewal; property newly mapped into a high-risk zone, one day, if bought within 13 months of the map revision; and a flood caused or worsened by wildfire on federal land, one day, if bought within 60 days of containment. That is the program described, not anyone's coverage. The clock runs from the premium, not from the forecast.
What to watch
The track. The Globe reports the European model closer to shore and the American GFS and British UKMet models further out, a gap worth 30 to 40 mph gusts against 60 to 70. Then whether the Weather Service extends the warnings past Friday; whether New Jersey declares a state of emergency, as it did for the 12 October 2025 nor'easter but has not here; and whether The Battery crosses 7.0 feet Friday evening. The models will settle the track eventually, usually around the time the storm arrives.
Posted 23 September 2026; updated if the warning is extended past Friday.
Figures reported independently by Insurance Journal (East) — carrying a Bloomberg wire story by Brian K. Sullivan, CNN, FOX 5 New York (Fox Television Stations) — by Mark Prussin, The Boston Globe, ABC News (Disney), weather.com (The Weather Company), News 12 New Jersey (Altice USA) — meteorologist Dave Curren, NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions, The Battery NY (station 8518750), NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions, Sandy Hook NJ (station 8531680), NOAA National Water Prediction Service — flood thresholds, gauge BATN6, NWS Mount Holly NJ coastal flood warning (via GovOneStop) and FEMA / NFIP — waiting period.