Bitcoin flashes bullish signal against tech stocks since September
Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average on September 18 after 235 trading sessions below it. Historically, Bitcoin gained a median return of about 84% over the following year in five of six comparable signals.
Bitcoin is showing renewed strength against technology stocks as a key historical indicator flashes a bullish signal after a prolonged correction, according to Benzinga. Sean Hagan, a market analyst at Bitcoin Magazine, highlighted a bullish reversal in the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq Composite ratio, which measures Bitcoin’s performance relative to technology stocks.
The ratio reclaimed its 200-day moving average on September 18 after spending 235 consecutive trading sessions below it and has held above that level despite a recent equity sell-off. Historically, Bitcoin gained over the following year in five of six comparable signals, delivering a median return of approximately 84% since 2015.
The latest recovery follows a 62% decline in the ratio through June 30, compared with previous cycle drawdowns of 87% in 2015, 83% in 2019 and 69% in 2022. Since the Nasdaq's October 6 record high, the index has declined 5.8%, while Bitcoin has fallen just 5%, suggesting the cryptocurrency is beginning to decouple from technology stocks.
Hagan said Bitcoin's current setup resembles successful recoveries in 2015, 2019 and 2023. Bitcoin's relative strength remains above key moving averages, while the Puell Multiple has flashed bullish signals since late September. The analyst sees Bitcoin potentially reaching $100,000 by year-end as its relative strength against tech stocks improves.
However, a close below the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio's 200-day moving average, currently equivalent to roughly $76,000 to $77,000 for Bitcoin, would invalidate the bullish outlook. Macroeconomic risks like elevated oil prices and treasury yields leave room for a failed breakout and volatility.
Figures as reported by Benzinga.
